In a brand new forecast released this week from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, ten weeks out from the election, Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to slightly outperform former President Trump. Along with the Harris advantage, the Democrats have picked up expected wins at every level.
Democratic Poll Numbers Surge Post-Biden Exit
Since President Biden dropped out of the race in July, the Democrats’ poll numbers have changed significantly, fueled by Harris’s fundraising success.
Renewed Energy in the Harris-Walz Campaign
In addition to the infusion of campaign donations and efforts on the Harris-Walz campaign’s behalf by former President Barack Obama, President Joe Biden, and Harris herself, the change in leadership at the top of the Democratic ticket has also led to renewed energy and momentum, which characterize the new party ticket.
Impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Suspension
The new forecast released Monday night is the first to include Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s suspension of candidacy. Kennedy’s decision to drop out of the race had minimal impact on the polling changes.
Harris’s Lead in Election Forecasts
According to the Hill/Decision Desk forecast, Harris now has a 55 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 45 percent chance of becoming the next President.
Shift in Polling Numbers Over the Last Month
Only a month ago, while Biden was in the final days of his campaign, Trump had an advantage of 56 percent chance of electoral victory.
Harris’s National Lead Grows
Harris has an average of four points advantage nationally over her opponent. This is a significant boost of six points, as she started her candidacy trailing Trump by two points.
Harris’s Strength in Key States
Harris is also slated to be victorious in many significant states in the November election.
Projected Wins in the ‘Blue Wall’ States
The new forecast shows Harris has a 67 percent chance of winning Michigan, a 58 percent chance of winning Wisconsin, and a 53 percent chance of victory in Pennsylvania. These states make up the traditional “blue wall” states.
Importance of Pennsylvania in Electoral Strategy
The results in Pennsylvania are critical in determining each party’s path to the White House in terms of gaining enough electoral votes to claim victory. Pennsylvania has more electoral college votes than any other swing state.
Narrowing Gaps in Swing States
In Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, Harris has narrowed the gap to trail Trump by only three points in Georgia, one point in Nevada, and standing head-to-head in the polls in Arizona.
Expert Commentary on Poll Shifts
Director of Data Science at Decision Desk HQ Scott Tranter said, “Neither campaign can go to sleep easy tonight thinking they’re ahead or they’ve got the advantage.”
Potential for Further Shifts in Polling
Tranter said, “We’ve seen these probabilities shift ten points once. We can certainly see them move 10-15 points again.”
Minimal Impact of Kennedy’s Exit
According to Tranter, the effect of dropping Kennedy out of the statistical model did not have a significant impact. This is explained by the fact that Kennedy’s support had dropped to five percent from a high of 15 percent in recent weeks.
