Results of the newest SurveyUSA election poll conducted June 28 following the first Presidential debate of the election cycle revealed that most Democrats still believe President Joe Biden is capable of undertaking the responsibilities of the Presidency for a second term.
The survey, conducted in all fifty states with 3,300 respondents, also revealed that Donald Trump is leading Biden by two points. The survey also breaks down which Democratic leaders have support from voters to replace Biden as the Presidential Nominee.
Democratic Voters’ Views on Biden
As the national debate swirls regarding how the Democratic establishment will or should pivot, given President Biden’s poor debate performance in June, the up-to-date SurveyUSA poll addressed the topic with the public.
Candidates’ Fitness for Office
When polled about whether each candidate was fit for four more years in office or “up to the job” as posed in the survey, 48 percent of all “likely voters” deemed Trump “up to the job” compared to 29 percent for Biden. Those percentages included all “likely voters” regardless of their preferred candidate.
Majority of Democrats Believe Biden Should Keep Running
Of the respondents, 55 percent of likely Democratic voters believe Biden should continue to run for President. Another 34 percent state that he should be replaced, and ten percent more are unsure.
Party Strategy if Biden Continues
Voters were then asked what they would like to see if Biden did not remove himself as a candidate. Most likely, Democratic voters stated that the national Democratic Party should remain aligned with the Biden-Harris ticket and nominate him to continue seeking the highest office.
Another 33 percent believe the national party should only move with him to appoint an alternate candidate.
Potential Replacement for Biden
The survey then asked voters who should run in Biden’s stead if he is replaced. As many as 43 percent of likely Democratic voters stated that Vice President Kamala Harris should replace Biden. A further breakdown reveals that of likely Democratic voters who are Black, 63 percent would choose Harris as a replacement for Biden.
This question only asked who should replace Biden, not whether respondents think Biden should be replaced.
Demographic Breakdown
In another demographic, Democratic likely voters ages 35-49, 56 percent would choose Harris to replace Biden if Biden were to be replaced. Again, there is no suggestion that they want Biden to be replaced as a candidate.
In two final sectors of the likely Democratic voter, Harris again commands a lead as a potential replacement for Biden. Of voters with children under 18 living at home, 55 percent prefer a Harris replacement as a candidate if Biden is to be replaced. Similarly, 53 percent of Democratic voters with a high school education prefer Harris to replace Biden if he is replaced.
Majority Support for Harris
The polls reveal that Harris commands a majority vote for all Democratic likely voter subgroups. This makes her the most likely candidate for a replacement nominee if the party chooses to replace Biden or if he willingly steps aside.
Gavin Newsom as an Alternative
After Harris, the following replacement contender would be California Governor Gavin Newsom, which 16 percent of Democratic likely voters selected to replace Biden if he does not run or is replaced.
Newsome polled highest with the most reliable senior citizen voter group, where 24 percent of Democrat likely voters selected him as the preferred replacement to Biden. Harris also received 24 percent of the senior Democratic likely voter support.
Support for Newsom
Newsom finds support among Democratic voters who have higher incomes and education levels. Male voters also indicate higher levels of support for Newsom as a replacement for Biden.
Other names with some but significantly lower support include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Maryland Governor Wes Moore.
Likely Voters’ Commitment
Of the respondents who claim to be likely to vote, 83 percent indicate that they will “definitely vote” for their identified candidate, meaning that their decision is unlikely to change. This includes 86 percent of Trump voters and 87 percent of Biden voters.
Third-Party and Undecided Voters
Six percent of voters would vote for a different presidential candidate, and seven percent are undecided.
Third-Party Candidate Support
The numbers differ for respondents who identified their support for a third-party candidate. Among this population, only 40 percent stated that they would “definitely vote” for that candidate. A significant 55 percent of those voting for a third party said they may change their mind when they cast their ballot.
Overall Outcome
In terms of overall outcome, the SurveyUSA poll shows that if the election were held today, Trump would have the support of 45% of voters contacted, whereas Biden has 43% of voter support.
