A New York Times poll shows President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in swing states pivotal to securing an electoral victory in November.
Trump Leads in Five of Six Swing States
The new poll shows Trump leading Biden in five of six swing states included in the New York Times poll. Of the states included in the survey, only Wisconsin leads Biden. Trump has pulled ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
Biden Loses Voter Support in Key Demographics
The New York Times poll also shows demographic weaknesses for Biden, including among young voters and black and Hispanic voters. These three demographic groups are credited with contributing to Biden’s victory in 2020, and the loss of support from these groups could be catastrophic for the Biden campaign.
Long Road to November
Some Democrats have dismissed the poll results based on the time distance from election day—in the electoral cycle, six months is a long time to win over voters. The Biden campaign will likely adjust its strategy and messages to reach these disenchanted voters who will support Biden in 2020.
Democrats Need To Strengthen Messaging on GOP Owned Themes
A left-leaning think tank, Third Way, suggested that the Biden campaign must reimagine and emphasize a strong and resonant message on border security, crime, and inflation—all topics of interest to the younger generation as well as black and Hispanic voters. These issues have been largely co-opted by the right but also matter to many Democratic leaders.
Political Analyst Claims “Absolute Disaster” for Biden
Political Analyst Harry Enten, who appears on CNN, stated that the New York Times poll numbers from Nevada and Arizona show Biden in a problematic position, calling them an “absolute disaster” for Biden’s prospects of winning the state vote.
Trump Is Not A Sure Bet
Enten, though pessimistic about Biden’s poll numbers in Nevada and Arizona, did not hand Trump the victory prematurely. Enten stated that even given the poll results, Trump would not have secured adequate electoral votes to clinch the Presidency. He declared the race still open to either candidate.
Biden’s Weakened Support Among Black, Hispanic, Young Voters
Biden’s support among black voters is lower than in 2020, a discrepancy that has been noted for months. However, Biden maintains a narrow lead with the Hispanic and young voter populations.
Democrats Must Retool Messages and Get Them to the Right Voters
Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist, suggested that the party must hone in on its communication strategies to reach the specific demographic it wishes to engage with, with a particular message that will resonate with them and encourage them to vote. Seawright suggested that voters are frustrated and confused, and that the party should refine and target these voters with a clear and compelling message.
Economy and International Conflict Upset Biden’s Past Supporters
Some voters are upset with Biden due to difficult economic times of high inflation, high groceries and gas prices, affordable housing challenges, and increased property taxes. Others are upset about Biden’s handling of the conflict in Israel and Gaza, with voters on both sides of the conflict upset at his response.
Senate Races Lean Democrat
Although the recent polling data may show Biden’s weaknesses, his party performs well in the open Senate races. Local dynamics and personalities involved in the open district and state races can cause a different political landscape than the dominating Presidential showdown between two iconic candidates.
Biden Campaign Focuses on the Future, Not the Polling
Ignoring the negative polling results, the Biden campaign has instead focused on enhancing its campaign infrastructure, building up its coffers, and competing strategically in key Congressional races and in the battleground swing states.
It’s Anyone’s Race
Some national polls show recent gains for Biden, and Democratic strategists point to improvements in the critical purple states. Any number of future polls will come out before the November election, many of which will return a result counter to that provided by the New York Times.
Polls Cannot Remove the Element of Surprise
There is reason for both candidates to be optimistic and to continue to court the central voting block of voters. The element of surprise has long been a central theme in election outcomes in the United States. No one poll is conclusive, as history shows.
