After spending four months negotiating a mixed foreign aid and border security supplemental funding package, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said the deal is no longer on the table. McConnell said the package lacks the broad support from GOP Senate and House members needed to become law. The buck stops with McConnell, as he would have to lead support for the deal to pass the Senate and lobby for the package with his House counterparts who have signaled their rejection of the agreement.
Details of Bipartisan Agreement
The bipartisan agreement, as drafted, would cost $118 billion and provide $60 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel, and $20 billion to address the illegal crossings at the southern border, which reached 2.4 million migrant encounters in fiscal year 2023. The Biden Administration and Senate leadership endorsed the agreement, but the bill would require buy-in from enough Republicans in the Senate and nearly all House Republicans to become law. It is clear now that such support is lacking despite Oklahoma Republican Senator James Lankford’s representation in the negotiations.
Johnson Effectively Sinks Deal
McConnell pronounced the deal dead Tuesday after Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson communicated that the bill would not pass the House, which is necessary to be signed into law. If a bill cannot pass one of the two chambers of Congress, it is effectively dead. The Senate is slated to begin debate on the border and foreign aid bill Wednesday, despite Senate Republicans opposing the border package.
Schumer’s Next Move Remains Unknown
At this point, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer may retreat to the standalone foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan that the White House had initially requested. Rather than bringing up a clean aid package at that time, a bipartisan group of legislators had been in months of negotiations to come to a deal that satisfies both sides’ interests regarding foreign aid, funding for border security, as well as some policy changes to address conservative concerns at the border. This deal has now gone by the wayside, and Schumer has not yet announced his next steps.
Waiting for a Potential New President
Some Republicans like Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) have suggested that they might achieve a more preferable result by delaying a vote for now and waiting out the election in November to see whether a potential Republican administration could bolster the conservative policy changes Cornyn and other conservatives in the House and Senate would like to see at the border.
Texas Border Fight Adds Insult to Injury
Senator Cornyn is also likely feeling pressure from his Texas constituency to side with his state and GOP Texas Governor Greg Abbott over the Biden Administration in the various skirmishes between the Border Patrol and the State of Texas at the border. It’s a sore spot that has erupted in the past weeks as the Supreme Court sided with the Border Patrol over Gov. Abbott regarding razor wire that Texas installed to deter illegal migrant crossings, but that occasionally impedes the Border Patrol agents from their responsibilities processing migrants.
In the Wake of Seeming Defeat
The authors of the now-dead border deal are Senators Chris Murphy (D-Conn), Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), and James Lankford (R-OK). Lankford, the lone Republican member of the coalition, cautioned that if the Senate GOP Conference intends to delay a vote to amend the deal or finesse the policy and funding specifications, he would accept that premise. However, he does not want to see the topics pushed off indefinitely.
Unwilling to Act on Border Crisis
For their part, the Democrats, led by Schumer and negotiator Senator Chris Murphy, have signaled disdain at what they claim is the non-seriousness of the Republicans, who were dismissive of the border deal despite their concerns being addressed adequately by Lankford’s participation. House GOP support is necessary for any bill to be signed into law. Democrats claim that it is hypocritical for Republicans to decry the crisis at the border yet be inflexible in voting for a bill that would move the needle toward their objectives.
Emergency Authority
The bill strengthens national security at the border by initiating a new three-year authority that requires the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to implement a state of emergency when there is a rolling seven-day average of 5,000 encounters a day or 8,500 encounters in one single day at the southern border. If that benchmark is broached, DHS must expel all migrants without processing them, except for the case of unaccompanied minors. The emergency authority ends when encounters drop at least 25% for seven days.
Expedited Work Permits
The bill also grants two-year work permits for migrants allowed into the United States to work immediately rather than wait for weeks and months as they must now do as requested by Democratic mayors in large cities with large influxes of migrants unable though willing to work.
House Republicans Demand Spending Cuts
Republicans believe the border protections do not go far enough, and many of them have their own misgivings about extending foreign aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. As an example of this, House Speaker Mike Johnson’s standalone Israel aid bill, which provides $17.6 billion to Israel, is not guaranteed to pass the House. His right flank colleagues demand that the aid funding be “paid for” by spending cuts elsewhere, such as offset from spending on the IRS as was passed in a previous bill in 2023. To the left, the critics of the Israel aid bill fault it for not including funding for Ukraine or providing aid to Gaza.
Complications on Multiple Levels
Based on this level of dissent over a clean aid bill to Israel, it is clear that a package that includes such other complicated subjects as border security and funding for three unrelated and contentious regions of the world must be carefully crafted if consensus is to be reached.
Isolationist Tendencies
Many Republicans still hold an isolationist bent and would like to stay out of what they would deem unnecessary foreign entanglements. Republican Senator Cornyn said the GOP might be able to strike a better deal with a more favorable president on their side.
Chuck Schumer Is Holding Next Move
Things change swiftly in the U.S. Congress, so it is possible for debate to ensue on the border package and for acceptable amendments to be offered on the Senate floor, which could rescue the time and effort spent by the authors of the as-for-now defeated deal.
