Pennsylvania’s Latino Voters Could Redefine the 2024 Election

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Eastern Pennsylvania’s “Latino Belt,” a critical battleground in the upcoming 2024 elections, provides a case study of the profound demographic and political shifts underway in the United States. In a marked change of political expectations, Hazleton, PA’s Hispanic voter population has increasingly embraced Republican candidates and priorities. While this case study is not indicative of other Hispanic populations in Pennsylvania, the trend will cause both parties to carefully consider efforts to court the broader Latino vote ahead of the 2024 election.

Importance of Pennsylvania in 2024 Elections

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Pennsylvania is one of the bellwether states to watch throughout every presidential race, and 2024 is no exception. Pennsylvania is a swing state with 19 electoral votes, and in 2024, it holds one of the most competitive Senate races in the country, as well as two toss-up House races in 2024 in which it is impossible to predict the outcome. Adding another variable to the Pennsylvania electoral equation is its exploding Latino voter population, which will hold significant sway in each race and whose political affiliations are quickly shifting.

Hispanic Voters Critical in Electoral Outcome in Pennsylvania

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Across Pennsylvania’s Latino Belt, the state’s fastest-growing population group is transforming the demographic landscape. With over 600,000 eligible Latino voters, their electoral preferences could decisively impact the outcome of tightly contested races, underscoring the strategic importance of this demographic in a state where a margin of just 82,000 votes decided the 2020 presidential election.

Hazleton Moves Right Even as the Hispanic Voter Population Increases Dramatically

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Since the 1990s, the Democratic stronghold on Hazleton has been shifting toward the Republican party. Notably, an elected Hazleton Democratic politician, Rep. Tom Stish, switched parties while in office in 1994, giving Republicans control of the House, Senate, and governor’s office. Since that point, the regional trend continued to the right, punctuated in the 2016 presidential election, and allowed Republicans to sweep local elections in Hazleton in 2023 even though most Hazleton Latino voters are still registered Democrats, and despite much of the rest of the country seeing the GOP with upsets on election night. 

Where Latino Population Assimilates May Indicate Political Leanings

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Hazleton is distinct from other Pennsylvania cities with a large Hispanic population, and its characteristics do not translate perfectly to cities such as Reading and Allentown. A suggested explanation for the difference is that Hispanics moving into Hazleton assimilated into an already conservative-leaning city, whereas those who moved elsewhere assimilated into Democratic towns. This potentially accounts for Hazleton residents being more inclined to accept the local Republican cultural messages. 

Issues Causing Latino Voters to Reassess Party Identification

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Historically, Latino voting patterns in Pennsylvania and nationwide have favored the Democratic Party. This alignment has been attributed to the party’s advocacy on issues of importance to Latino communities, such as immigration reform, healthcare, and workers’ rights. However, recent trends indicate a fraying of this alliance, with a notable shift among some Latino voters towards the Republican Party, influenced by economic concerns, cultural issues such as abortion, and a perceived shift in Democratic priorities.

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The Republican Party’s challenge is to capitalize on this opening without alienating its base or compromising on key issues. Hazleton’s experience, where Republicans have made inroads among Latino voters, offers a potential blueprint for broader engagement. Yet, achieving this on a larger scale necessitates a nuanced understanding of Latino voters’ diverse concerns and priorities.

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The evolving political dynamic presents a significant challenge for Democrats, who must reassess their approach to maintaining and expanding their support among Latino voters. The emergence of economic concerns and cultural issues as pivotal factors in Latino political engagement underscores the need for targeted outreach and policy proposals that resonate with this demographic.

Latino Voters in PA Unapproached by Political Parties

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Interestingly, in a 2022 survey of Latinos in Pennsylvania, 51% stated that they had not been contacted by either party or candidate in a voter registration campaign. This is likely because campaigns direct all concentrated efforts on registering and contacting voters who they believe will support their campaign.

Strategies Employed by Get Out the Vote Campaigns

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It is counterproductive for campaigns to activate voters who will support an opponent. This could explain why Latino voters in Pennsylvania were not contacted– neither party was certain of the persuasion of the voter. Generally, voter registration for a party is a good indicator for campaigns on whom to contact. Parties in Pennsylvania may feel voter registration identification is not a good indicator of voter behavior when it comes to Latino voters.

National Demographic Shift Well Underway

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Beyond just Eastern Pennsylvania, the Latino electorate nationwide has seen significant growth, positioning itself as a crucial demographic in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. According to the Pew Research Institute, the Latino population eligible to vote has expanded significantly, reaching an estimated 36.2 million in 2024 from 32.3 million in 2020. This surge accounts for half of the total increase in the size of the U.S. electorate during this period, marking a notable demographic shift.

Latino Vote Represents 14% of Electorate, Younger Demographic Profile

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Latinos are set to represent 14.7% of all eligible voters in November 2024, hitting a new peak. This figure has been on a steady rise over the past two decades, up from 13.6% in 2020 and more than doubling since 2000, when they made up just 7.4%. The demographic profile also shows eligible Hispanic voters are younger than the general eligible voter population.

Geographic Distribution of Latino Vote

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California has the largest number of eligible Hispanic voters, housing a quarter of this demographic. When added together with Latino residents of Texas, Florida, New York, and Arizona, these regions comprise about 65% of the nation’s Hispanic voters.

Hazleton as Microcosm of Shifting Hispanic Party Allegiance

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In conclusion, the shifting political affiliations among Pennsylvania’s Latino voters reflect a broader realignment trend in American politics. As the 2024 elections approach, the strategies adopted by both parties to court the Latino vote will play a pivotal role in shaping the political landscape in Pennsylvania and across the nation. The evolving dynamics within the Latino Belt in Eastern Pennsylvania underscore the complex interplay of demographic change, political affiliation, and the future of American electoral politics.

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