Four new names are emerging as top contenders to replace President Joe Biden, who some political experts expect to remove himself as the Democratic candidate for President as early as this weekend.
President Biden’s campaign, as recently as Thursday, has denied the claim that Biden will step down, despite the latest setback of his COVID diagnosis and his cancellation of campaign events as he quarantines in Delaware.
Top Names to Replace Biden
The top names to replace Biden in the event that he steps out of the race have always included Vice President Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, a two-term California Governor, and Gretchen Whitmer, a two-term Michigan Governor.
Now, newer names with less national recognition are rising as prime vice presidential or potentially presidential candidates. A winning replacement candidate will likely bring with him or her an electoral victory in at least one battleground state needed to win the Presidency.
Governor Wes Moore
The first new name is Governor Wes Moore from Maryland. He is serving a first term as Maryland’s governor and is seen within the party as a rising star. This year, he has been recognized for his leadership and response to the Baltimore bridge collapse.
Polling Data
A BlueLabs poll shows Moore performing five points better than Biden in the swing states that a winning President needs to win.
Governor Josh Shapiro
A second promising name on the list is Governor Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania, also serving his first term in the battleground state. Shapiro has high approval ratings from both parties.
Strategic Benefits
Shapiro’s candidacy could strategically benefit the Democrats because he may be one of the few Democratic candidates who could draw support away from Trump. In contrast, it is unlikely that Harris or Newsom could persuade a Trump voter.
A May survey revealed that as many as one-third of Trump supporters rate Shapiro positively, meaning that potentially some of the Trump supporters might favor Shapiro, especially within the swing state of Pennsylvania.
National Spotlight
Shapiro has been in the national spotlight since the failed assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, last weekend. If Biden is replaced on the ticket soon before the news cycle shifts from the assassination attempt, Shapiro will be at the forefront of party leaders’ minds.
Polling Performance
BlueLabs polling memo also listed Shapiro as a well-performing candidate in swing states, outperforming Biden in those states.
Senator Mark Kelly
A third candidate to emerge lately amid the chatter of President Biden’s potential withdrawal from the Presidential race is Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona. Senator Kelly is a larger-than-life personality and former astronaut with relatively strong name recognition nationally. He is married to former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords, who was famously shot at a town hall meeting.
Appeal to Party Leaders
While new to discussing a Presidential ticket mix-up or an all-new ticket, Kelly’s appeal to party leaders is his sway in Arizona, another battleground state that a successful Presidential candidate must try to win. BlueLabs polls included Kelly, showing that he outperformed President Biden in their analysis.
Governor Andy Beshear
Finally, another potential pick to lead the Democratic party in a post-Biden era is Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. Beshear is a two-term Democratic governor in Republican red Kentucky, a significant feat.
He won his second term in November 2023 against a formidable Republican challenger backed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican Kentucky icon since he was elected to the Senate in 1985.
National Stature and Polling Data
While Beshears is popular within Kentucky, he has yet to have the national stature that could catapult him to the top of the list. Also, despite his Democratic affiliation, he is likely not as liberal as many national Democrats would want or expect from their top lawmakers.
Reuters-Ipsos Poll
A Reuters-Ipsos poll also revealed that Beshears would trail Donald Trump in the polls 40 percent to 36 percent, which puts him in the same unenviable position as Biden, who is also increasingly trailing in the polls against Trump. This dynamic is the main impetus among Democrats to replace Biden as the candidate in November.
Conclusion
It is not clear that Biden will step aside before he is formally nominated by the Democratic National Convention. If he does, one of the four newer names may be considered for the presidential ticket. If President Biden steps down, party leaders are likely to select the candidate pair most likely to win the election against Trump. That consideration will outpace any others.
