There are many factors at play leading to the uncertainty of the outcome of the Presidential race in November. Several factors could potentially disrupt the campaigns over the coming months. Five of them- health, international conflict, third-party candidates, legal troubles, and economic perception– are outlined in this article.
Health Concerns Impacting the Candidates
The first issue that could significantly impact the outcome of the elections is the health of the candidates. Both candidates are some of the oldest Presidential candidates in U.S. History.
Age of Candidates and Risks of All Sorts
With Joe Biden being 81 years old and Donald Trump being 78 years old, any singular health issue or unfortunate fall could potentially turn serious and force a withdrawal of the candidate or cause a crisis of confidence in the leader.
Health Concerns’ Detailed Implications
If health struggles do lead Trump or Biden to step back from candidacy, an issue of selecting new candidates arises, along with an abbreviated period of vetting and winnowing to reach the final candidate. Both parties are hoping beyond hope that their candidate stays healthy and hale through the election and inauguration.
Difficulty in Choosing a Successor Candidate
There may not be enough time to establish a consensus candidate and party leaders will be forced to choose in a less than ideal way. There is no heir apparent, as Bidens’s Vice President Kamala Harris is not seen as a popular, viable candidate at this time, and Trump has not announced who his deputy leader will be.
Unlikely Republicans Would Rally Around Haley Based on Differences to GOP Frontrunner Trump
It is unlikely Republicans would coalesce around former candidate Nikki Haley due to her conflict with Trump and their differences, especially given Trump’s popularity within the Republican party.
How Advanced Age Impacts Methods of Campaigning, Less Rigorous Travel, Focus on Fundraising
The advanced age of both candidates plays a role in the campaign strategy. Both candidates are well known, their policies are proven through the course of a four-year presidential administration, and their personalities and character have been publicly on display for decades.
If a younger and less established set of candidates were vying for office, there would likely be more debates and more public campaign rallies and appearances. As it is, the elder statesmen can take a more relaxed approach to campaign appearances and focus their efforts on the moneymaker– campaign fundraisers.
The Risk of International Conflicts
Another factor that could influence the outcome of the election in November is global conflicts, of which there are several. An escalation in conflict either in the Middle East with Iran, with Russia, or with China could dramatically affect the election, with American voters insisting on having a leader with a particular strength or position on the conflict.
How would Biden Handle the Russian Invasion of NATO Ally?
Another global action that could sway the election would be Biden’s response if Russia decides to invade a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). According to the NATO framework, the U.S. would be implicated in joining the conflict, forcing the public to look carefully at each candidate’s position on the topic.
The International Arena’s Impact on Domestic Politics
Of specific interest is how Biden would act, given the opportunity for direct U.S. military involvement during the remainder of 2024. Biden’s leadership on the world stage could give Americans the opportunity to review his performance as Commander-in-Chief and vote according to their perceptions of his strengths or weaknesses.
His current actions as Commander In Chief mostly involve armchair diplomacy, and speaking to foreign leaders in meetings rather than directing military actions.
The Emergence of Third-Party Candidates
A third element that could greatly impact the election results in 2024 is a persuasive third-party candidate, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK).
RFK’s Promise to Pull Support from Major Party Candidates
RFK’s polling has been impressive for a third-party candidate, pulling support from over 10 percent of voters- a significant percentage that could sway the election if supporters pull more votes away from one of the major candidates over the other.
Third-Party Participation on the Debate Stage
Additionally, if RFK participates in a debate with Biden and Trump, the other candidates will have to distinguish themselves from Biden, thereby taking positions that may alienate them from some potential supporters. Having a three way debate is far more destabilizing than a classic two party debate.
The third party candidate is free to hold a myriad of unpredictable positions, whereas the major party candidates are expected to hold close to their respective historic party platforms.
Economic Instability
Fourth, the state of the economy leading up to the election will have a large impact on the outcome of the election. Most likely, if Americans are feeling the pain of gas prices, food inflation, and high interest rates as they mull over which candidate to vote for, they may vote to punish Biden in a move of retrospective voting.
Vote to Reward or Punish Incumbent President Based on the Current Economic Feeling
Alternatively, according to the same theory of retrospective voting, if individuals are feeling financially optimistic, their home is gaining value, and their children’s educational loans are set to be forgiven by the Biden student loan debt forgiveness plan, that individual may feel more favorable toward Biden and reward him with a vote.
The state of the economy between now and November is critical in determining the persuasion of voters toward the incumbent president.
Trump’s Legal Challenges
A fifth major consideration is the web of ongoing legal troubles facing former President Trump. Trump is embroiled in four criminal cases and various other civil entanglements. Whether Trump is convicted or acquitted may have a large impact on whether voters find him acceptable as a Presidential candidate or not.
While a former Trump voter may not switch a vote to Biden, that candidate may choose to stay home and decline to vote this election cycle.
