More than a quarter of Americans are searching for a new job, the highest number in ten years. The New York Federal Reserve survey of consumers revealed that 28.4 percent are looking for a new job, 19.4 percent higher than a year ago and the highest percentage since March 2014.
Job Seekers Concentrated Among Certain Demographics
The increase in job seekers was found to be most concentrated among individuals over 45, individuals without a college degree, and individuals with an annual household income under $60,000.
Individuals Currently Employed Also Looking for New Jobs
The figures include individuals who are already unemployed and looking for employment, as well as those who have jobs but want a new one.
Survey Conducted Three Times a Year
This survey is completed three times a year as part of the Survey of Consumer Expectations Labor Market Survey.
Survey Results Indicate Economic Concerns
The study’s results show that the U.S. economy is weaker than current indicators reveal, or at least employees have a negative outlook about the economy and their job security.
Economists Not Alarmed About a Recession
Economists, looking at the whole picture of data that has come out in recent months, are not sounding an alarm about the likelihood of a recession.
Job Numbers Remain Historically Low
The job numbers are higher than expected, but at 4.3 percent, they are still relatively low historically. The 4.3 percent represents an increase from the lowest point of the post-pandemic period of 3.5 percent.
Expert Opinions on Economic Outlook
In a non-scientific expression of the economic expectations of workers looking for a new position, Guy Berger from the Burning Glass Institute labor research group said, “The vibes have gotten worse.”
Economic Risks Perceived as Higher but Not Alarming
Berger continued, “It’s not like people should panic—this is not like 2008 or COVID—but, given an ordinary person’s balance of risks, it probably is a little higher.”
Survey Reflects Workers’ Concerns About Job Security
Berger cited the survey results as likely due to workers’ anecdotal stories of knowing someone in their social network who may have lost a job or is having difficulty finding a suitable new position.
Likelihood of Layoffs at an All-Time High
According to the survey, individuals are concerned about losing their jobs. The average likelihood of being laid off is 4.4 percent, up from 3.9 percent a year ago. The recent 4.4 percent finding is the highest in the survey’s decade-long history, which started in 2014.
Layoffs Low Despite Concerns
Berger claims that layoffs are low and the percentage of the working-age population employed is at an all-time high of 80.9 percent.
Positive Economic Outlook from Financial Group
Chief Economist Torsten Slok from Apollo Global Management financial group said, “The U.S. economy is doing just fine with steady growth.”
Conflicting Data Points in Economic Analysis
Slok reassured his clients over the weekend of his positive outlook on the U.S. economy, citing “steady data” in other sectors, including restaurant, travel, credit cards, and bank lending.
Mixed Signals in Economic Data
While Slok reassured his clients, Berger admitted that “most data points are, on average, moving slowly in the wrong direction.” He said, “The best you can say is that some data are in a good spot and not getting worse.”
