All eyes were on New Jersey, New Mexico and a handful of other states in the latest round of influential primary elections June 4. The lessons learned from this primary cycle are instructive for campaigns moving forward in this influential swing state.
Overall, patterns revealed that establishment candidates did well for both parties in swing states, and incumbents saw a significant advantage over challengers in this presidential election year. Finally, both parties have significant holdouts who are not ready to declare support for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
New Jersey Republican Nomination for Senate
In New Jersey, an establishment Republican, Curtis Bashaw, clinched the Republican nomination for a Senate seat, beating out Christine Serrano, a Trump-aligned candidate. For the same seat, Rep. Andy Kim won the Democratic nomination. Kim was the favored establishment candidate, but there were other challengers as well. New Jersey’s first lady, Tammy Murphy, had once been a candidate but dropped her bid against Kim.
Upcoming Election Dynamics
Both Bashaw and Kim will face off against current Senator Robert Menendez, who is running for a fourth term but is running as an independent rather than a Democrat. Menendez has been indicted on significant charges of bribery.
Potential Impact of Menendez’s Candidacy
If Menendez effectively takes enough votes from Kim, the establishment Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate Bashaw could potentially win the race in November. This dynamic makes the Senate seat one to watch, as the majority in the Senate could go to either party in November and the seat may be decisive in that account.
Impact on Lower Ticket Races
In addition to a potential flip in the Senate seat from blue to red if Menendez commands a significant percentage of Democrat votes, the victory of Curtis Bashaw, the particular Republican candidate who won, is instructive to all lower ticket races.
Trump’s Endorsed Candidates
Based on the fact that Bashaw outperformed Trump-backed candidate Serrano, It is not a given in this election cycle that Trump’s candidates will secure the nomination over establishment Republicans. The outcome in New Jersey defies the reality in many states and races where Trump’s endorsed candidates have effectively won races. This pattern may not hold in the larger swing states.
Performance of Establishment Candidates
This week, a main takeaway from the New Jersey primary is that Republican establishment candidates performed well, as did establishment Democratic Representative Rob Menendez.
Voter Preferences in Swing States
The data from the primary election is not surprising. In large swing states, the average voter is likely not on the polar end of their party’s base, meaning that a more establishment candidate will appeal to moderate voters. More moderate, establishment candidates typically take a less incendiary, more incremental approach to political change, which appeals to moderate voters.
New Jersey Voter Behavior
Another takeaway is that New Jersey voters, in electing Bashaw over Serrano for the Republican nomination to the open Senate seat, voted for the establishment candidate with more moderate political speech.
Campaign Rhetoric
For example, Trump-endorsed Serrano mimicked the brash, name-calling, and aggressive tone of Trump. She called Bashaw a “coward” and “phony,” political rhetoric not rewarded by moderate voters in either party.
Bashaw’s Political Positioning
Bashaw, though more moderate and traditionally establishment than Serrano, did endorse Trump for president. At the same time, he donated to Chris Christie’s presidential campaign and previously signed his name to a letter stating that Trump is a “threat to democracy.”
Protest Votes
Voters’ support for the leading candidates in their party is firm but not universal. Protest votes against both Biden and Trump emerged in primary election results nationwide. In Tuesday’s primary votes in New Mexico, Biden received 84 percent of the Democratic votes, with up to 10 percent registering their vote as “uncommitted,” which is understood to be a response to Biden’s handling of the Hamas-Israeli war.
Similar Patterns in Protest Votes Across Parties
The numbers were similar in New Jersey, with Biden receiving up to 88 percent of the Democratic vote, with the remaining being protest “uncommitted” voters. Trump, on the other hand, received 85 percent of Republican support in New Mexico. The remaining 15 percent of votes went to Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, or “uncommitted.”
Implications of Uncommitted Voters
The proportionally large number of “uncommitted” voters teaches Trump and Biden that they still have a long way to go to convince holdout voters who feel lukewarm or disapproving of them.
Incumbent Performance
A final lesson from the June 4 primary is that incumbents are performing well, beating out primary challengers who are largely more extreme in political views than the incumbent candidate.
For example, in the recent primaries, Menendez in New Jersey retained his candidacy, as did Montana Governor Greg Gianforte, Rep. Ryan Zinke in Montana, and Reps. Marianette Miller-Meeks and Randy Feenstra in Iowa. All warded off a significant primary challenger.
