A new The Hill/Decision Desk HQ forecast reveals that in the past month, the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives electoral races have shifted significantly, narrowing the advantages enjoyed by the Republican party, which was favored to win both Houses of Congress.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s Influence on Democratic Chances
Vice President Kamala Harris and her supporters’ enthusiasm and fundraising efforts spurred increased chances of Democratic victory at the federal level. Though the Democratic party has increased in favor of winning the Senate and House majorities, it is still seen as the underdog, and the race will likely remain close in the ten weeks until the national election.
House of Representatives Forecast: A Tight Race
In the House of Representatives, the race for the majority will be the tightest, with the Republicans favoring 56 percent to retain their current majority status. The new forecast projects that Republicans will hold at least 215 of their current 220 seats and that Democrats will win 210 seats. All others are considered “toss-up” seats, leaning slightly toward the GOP.
Republicans’ Previous Lead Narrowed in Recent Weeks
Only a month ago, while President Joe Biden was still running for the White House, the Republicans had a 61 percent chance of retaining the majority in the House of Representatives. Five points have reduced their edge in the past month or so.
Every House Seat in Play Due to Two-Year Election Cycle
In the House of Representatives, every Member of Congress faces an election every two years, putting every seat in play. With extremely tight margins in a close election, Democrats must add at least four seats in the House and retain their current seats to win a bare majority.
Republicans alternatively plan to defend their current 220 years and add more, basing their enthusiasm on Biden-Harris’s allegedly poor record on immigration and the economy.
Analyst Insights on the Toss-Up Races
“So many of these races are toss-ups,” according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ analyst Scott Trantor. He continued, “If four or five of these toss-up races start leaning Democratic or Republican, that can greatly change the probability. That’s how close the House is.”
Senate Forecast: Republicans Favored
The Republican party is expected to win back the majority in the Senate, as only particular Senate seats are up for election in any given year. Based on the makeup of seats open for reelection this year, Republicans are favored by a 67 percent likelihood of victory.
Impact of Harris’s Leadership on Senate Race
Prior to Harris’s establishment at the top of the Democratic ticket, the Republicans had a 78 percent chance of regaining the majority in the Senate. This percentage has dropped 11 percent since Harris took the helm of her party.
A Slim Republican Majority Expected in the Senate
If the Republicans win in the Senate, the majority will be extremely slim, as the GOP is projected to win 51 seats.
Harris’s Influence on Senate Chances
Scott Tranter, director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, said, “We can empirically say the switch from Biden to Harris has helped the Democrats’ chances at the presidential level, maybe a little bit at the Senate level. The Republicans are still certainly heavily favored.”
Democrats’ Focus on Defending Vulnerable Senate Seats
In the Senate, Democrats are focused on defending a half-dozen vulnerable seats that they currently hold.
Republicans’ Strategy in Senate Races
Republicans are interested in defending only two, in which their party is favored to win.
GOP’s Likely Gains in West Virginia and Montana
The GOP is also likely to add another seat in West Virginia due to the retirement of independent Senator Joe Manchin and is also hoping to oust Democratic Senator Jon Tester in the Republican stronghold of Montana.
Tester will not likely survive in a presidential election year when most voters favor Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. Tester’s opponent, Republican Tim Sheehy, has a 73 percent chance of winning the Senate seat.
Diminished Republican Hopes for a Sweeping Senate Victory
At one point, the Senate Republicans were eager to establish a majority as high as 55 seats potentially; however, with the advent of the Harris-Walz Presidential ticket, the chances of that sweeping victory are greatly diminished.
