Despite all indications pointing otherwise, Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump claimed Thursday that abortion will not be a “big factor” in elections. He argues that reproductive rights will be a “tiny issue” in the November vote.
The Dismissal of Single-Issue Voters
This position is dismissive of the large segment of single-issue voters either opposed to abortion or supportive of a woman’s right to choose to abort.
Trump’s Upcoming Announcement on a Constitutional Amendment
In Trump’s Thursday press conference at Mar-a-Lago, he said that he would reveal how he is voting on a constitutional amendment in Florida to protect the right to abortion and overturn a 6-week abortion ban.
Concerns Among Anti-Abortion Supporters
The fact that his vote is not already known is troubling to many of his anti-abortion supporters. Other Republican leaders in the past would have left no doubt about their opinion on the crucial matter.
Potential Impact on Trump’s Base and Moderate Voters
If he supports the amendment, he may be able to bring some moderate pro-abortion women into his fold. But he would alienate his base, who espouses sacred pro-life values.
Trump’s Position on Abortion Ban Exceptions
At Thursday’s press conference, Trump emphasized his support for abortion ban exceptions in the case of rape, incest, or the health of the mother. He suggested that in states where abortion is banned but exceptions exist under these conditions, abortion “seems to be much less of an issue.”
The Dynamics in Red States with Abortion Exceptions
He may have been referring to the fact that in red states where abortion is heavily restricted, yet there remain exemptions for rape, incest, and maternal health, the conservative voters are relatively mollified, therefore making it “less of an issue.”
The Impact of Roe v. Wade Overturn on State Legislation
In this case, as opposed to in 2016, states can restrict abortion according to the persuasion of the state voters. This ability only became available after Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022.
Trump’s Role in Overturning Roe v. Wade
Trump took credit for returning the decision of abortion to the states through the toppling of Roe v. Wade. It is likely true that his commitment to nominating judges approved by the conservative Federalist Society did help hasten the demise of Roe v. Wade, which had been legally vulnerable since its inception in 1973.
Trump’s Long-Term Position on Abortion
Trump does not have a long-term principled position on the issue of abortion. His interest in the topic was to return the question to the states.
The Unexpected Results of State Legislation
Now that the states do have the control, Trump noted, athwart of what his pro-life supporters wanted to see, that when the states did have the opportunity to legislate on the issue for themselves, the results were far less pro-choice than conservatives hoped for or expected from the electorate.
Liberal Outcomes in State Abortion Votes
Trump noted that when states voted on abortion access, the results have been “much more if you could say, liberal than you would think.” He referenced Ohio and Kansas ballot initiatives which enshrined the right to an abortion in the state constitution.
Florida’s Upcoming Ballot Initiative and Trump’s Undisclosed Vote
A similar measure is on Florida’s ballot in November, and Trump will be marking his personal choice when voting. He has not disclosed how he will vote.
Anticipation of Trump’s Press Conference
Trump said, “I’m going to announce that. I will have a press conference shortly, so I don’t want to tell you now.”
