It’s anyone’s guess whether President Joe Biden will be nominated by his party to continue the path toward the White House. If he is replaced either because he steps down voluntarily or because the party moves to replace him through another means, as identified by The Hill newspaper, there are seven candidates most likely to replace Biden.
Kamala Harris
The first candidate most likely to replace President Biden is Kamala Harris. Harris, the second-highest-ranked lawmaker in the U.S., has four years of executive experience to recommend her.
She was an obvious contender for the next Presidential race in 2028, so moving up the timeline by four years would make little difference in her likelihood of presenting herself as a competitive candidate.
Public Perception of Harris
Americans did elect her indirectly as Biden’s replacement when he won the Presidency in 2020, and her reemergence on the current Biden-Harris ticket reaffirms her credentials as the first-in-line in case anything should happen to Biden. Harris’s vulnerability lies in her popularity and approval rating, which has often trailed Biden’s.
FiveThirtyEight data analytics show Harris attaining higher popularity with voters in the past few months. Additionally, some of Biden’s most minor popular policies, such as his border crisis and immigration problems, were within Harris’s oversight, meaning she could be held responsible for some of Biden’s most unpopular programs and failures.
Demographic Support
Harris is more popular with black voters than Biden is, and the Black vote will play a significant role in the demographic trends of the upcoming election. A growing number of Black voters have voiced support for Trump.
Gavin Newsom
The next most likely candidate on the tip of many tongues in Washington and across the country is California Governor Gavin Newsom. Newsom is one of the most recognizable Democrats in the county, and there are few competitors at the top of the list of younger, fresher up-and-comers.
Newsom’s Appeal
Part of Newsom’s appeal is his reputation as a fighter, sparring and going toe to toe with Republican mavericks like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. It is reasonable to assume, given Newsom’s singular stature as one of the only nationally recognized young Democratic leaders, that he might have his eye already on the White House in the future.
With experience running a state with a nearly $4 trillion economy, the fifth largest in the world, Newsom’s executive experience gives him a proven track record for those who align with his blue state politics.
Loyalty to Biden
Another factor going in Newsom’s favor is his show of loyalty to President Biden. He has denied interest in replacing Biden and stood up for him following Biden’s faltering performance on the debate stage. Newsom has been raising money for Biden and calling talk of his replacement “unhelpful.”
This loyalty will win points with many institutional and statesman-oriented Democratic voters.
Gretchen Whitmer
Governor Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan is another relatively fresh face among Democratic contenders. Her campaign slogan, “Fix the Damn Roads,” was a winning tactic with many Michigan voters.
Whitmer is in her second term as Governor, and in the second election, she also gained majority support in both Houses of Congress in Michigan, allowing her to implement her policies and vision for the state, which focused mainly on infrastructure as she promised when first elected.
Abortion Rights and Policy
In a time when Democrats are staking their election platform on access to abortion and abortifacient drugs, Whitmer was able to sign a bill into law enshrining the right to have an abortion into the Michigan state Constitution.
This action has lent her star status among liberals and feminists within the Democratic party. She has also successfully implemented union-friendly laws, another policy priority for the Democratic party.
Support for Biden
Like the other candidates, Whitmer has stated her support of Biden running for reelection and spoke to reporters and the Biden campaign to emphasize that her office did not mention her name as a replacement.
Pete Buttigieg
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is on the list of potential replacements, mainly because he was a candidate for President in 2020 and, therefore, has already showcased his political ambitions. He is also aligned with the Biden agenda as a Biden cabinet member. Buttigieg saw success with his work on a large infrastructure bill with Biden.
Still, he will have difficulty edging out the competitors to reach a large coalition of support, including from minorities, with which he has not performed well historically. Buttigieg also faces criticism due to his handling of the train derailment crisis in East Palestine, Ohio, in 2023.
Josh Shapiro
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro served as the PA attorney general before being voted in as Governor in 2022. Shapiro won the purple state handily, relying on a moderate policy history merged with the pet issues relevant to the more liberal partisans at the time of the election to sail to victory in an otherwise battleground state.
Shapiro’s high energy and youth make him an attractive candidate for 2028 and beyond. Shapiro has been working for Biden, fundraising and raising enthusiasm for the octogenarian. He said, “Democrats, stop worrying and start working. We all have the responsibility here to do our part.”
JB Pritzker
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker will be on hand and on screen to welcome the Democratic National Convention to Chicago. He is a second-term governor of Illinois and a Biden ally. Pritzker has been a surrogate for Biden, as have the other candidates mentioned. He undertook an effort to fight back abortion restrictions in Florida.
Andy Beshear
The seventh potential candidate to replace Biden or step into the national limelight as a future Democratic leader is Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, elected to a second term as a Democratic leader in a red state.
Beshear is young, only in his 40s, and popular. He amassed enough support to gain more votes in his second victory than in his first. Significantly, Beshear is a twice-elected Democratic governor in Kentucky, a state that has gone for Republican presidents in every election since 1990.
Beshear seems to repeat the line the Democrats have drawn regarding deference and respect to their older party members. He said, “The debate performance was rough. It was a terrible night for the President, but he is still the candidate. Only he can make decisions about his future candidacy. So as long as he continues to be in the race, I support him.”
It remains to be seen if Beshear could win the support of the broad spectrum of moderate to liberal to progressive Democrats outside the state of Kentucky.
