Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is gearing up for a Thursday vote on an impotent bipartisan border bill. More Democrats are set to oppose the bill than did previously, and Republicans remain unlikely to lend support. With no hope of advancing, the once much-touted bill is no more than a political prop for campaign purposes.
Previous Vote Dynamics
When the bipartisan border bill came before the Senate early in 2024, it also contained foreign aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The bill failed 49-50 in a close vote. Five Senate Democrats opposed it. Without the “sweetener” of foreign aid attached to the bill, more Democrats are likely to oppose the standalone security bill this time around.
Concerns Over Democratic Support
One of the bipartisan bill’s negotiators, Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT), worries that more Democrats will oppose it without the added incentive of foreign aid funds. However, Murphy finds the waning Democratic support a positive indicator that the bill is bipartisan and hits the middle range of votes.
Republican Stance
It is unlikely that Democrats will gain enough support from Republicans to support passage of the bill. Even the Republican negotiator, Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), has indicated that he will not vote for the bill. Without his support, it is unlikely that any Republicans will vote for the border bill.
Key Republican Opinions
Republicans who support or are on the fence about the border bill include Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), who is undecided; Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who has questioned the bill’s intent; and Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who supports the bill but also calls it a political ploy.
Messaging Concerns
In explaining how Democrats are using the border bill as a political ploy, Sen. Murkowski stated that Democrats are trying to secure a popular win on an important political topic for many people— immigration. To this end, they can allow incumbents to take a vote on a popular bill and claim that political objective as their own, though the bill will never become law. Despite this fact, Murkowski still supports the legislation.
Bill Provisions
The policy proposals within the bill are largely acceptable to most moderate Republicans and Democrats alike. The bill triggers an automatic border shutdown if certain numerical thresholds are crossed. It also bolsters asylum standards. Despite the common-sense policies contained in the bill, it is just a shell, as it is not expected to pass the Senate.
Campaign Trail Politics
This vote is one of the latest political parties trying to rack up “proofs” for voters of their policy positions and abilities. With border issues being of top priority for many, including in Senate races in Montana and Ohio, the border vote will be used to claim credit or attack opponents alternatively.
House Prospects
Even if the bill passes in the Senate with a slim majority, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives is unlikely to bring it up for a vote on the House Floor. The bill would likely remain untouched for the remainder of the legislative session.
Schumer’s Justification
Schumer is spearheading the effort to bring the bill to a vote. He hopes that Democrats will be able to show their commitment to border security, reclaiming the narrative that only conservatives care about it.
McConnell’s Counterpoint
For his part, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell blames Democrats for the current situation, claiming that Democrats are attempting to assume a false political posture. If Democrats truly were interested in securing the border, they could have done so before the final few months of President Biden’s term in office. According to Republicans, the timing makes the push suspect.
Bipartisan Negotiation Efforts
While the initial bipartisan trio, including Sens. Murphy, Sinema, and Lankford, had negotiated and stood behind a carefully negotiated bipartisan agreement, bringing it up in the final push before the Presidential election in the fall has poisoned the effort, and it will no longer be successful in this Congress or in another.
Impact on Vulnerable Incumbents
The main winners in the current scheme to bring the border bill up for a vote will be vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents from swing states who hope to convince voters they care about border security and immigration solutions.
Future Implications
Regardless of how the vote turns out, the Senators who seek to benefit from supporting the bill will be able to, and those who oppose it will also be able to make a policy claim about their rejection. At this point, the border bill is just a prop for the political class.
